A/B Testing
Compare prompt versions with statistical rigor to make confident, data-driven decisions about which performs better.
What is A/B Testing?#
A/B testing (also called split testing) compares two prompt versions by running them against the same inputs and statistically analyzing which performs better. Unlike casual comparison, A/B testing provides mathematical confidence that differences are real, not due to random variation.
Controlled Comparison
Both versions run on identical inputs for fair, unbiased comparison.
Statistical Analysis
Get p-values, confidence intervals, and effect sizes for your results.
Clear Winner
Know with 95%+ confidence which version performs better.
Quantify Improvement
Measure exactly how much better one version is (e.g., 12% improvement).
A/B vs. Batch Evaluation
When to Use A/B Testing#
A/B testing is most valuable when you need to make a decision between two approaches and want confidence in your choice:
| Scenario | Use A/B Testing? | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Choosing between two prompt approaches | Yes | Get statistical confidence in which is better |
| Validating a prompt change improves quality | Yes | Confirm improvement is real, not noise |
| Comparing different AI models | Yes | Understand which model works best for your use case |
| Quick feedback during development | No | Use Playground for fast iteration |
| General quality check before deployment | No | Use batch evaluation for overall quality |
| Regression testing against baseline | Maybe | A/B test for close calls, regression for gates |
Setting Up a Test#
Follow these steps to run a rigorous A/B test:
Define Your Hypothesis
Select Version A (Control)
Select Version B (Challenger)
Choose Test Dataset
Configure Success Metrics
Run the Test
{
"testName": "Step-by-step vs. General Instructions",
"hypothesis": "Explicit steps will improve completeness",
"versionA": {
"promptId": "prompt_123",
"version": 5,
"label": "General instructions (control)"
},
"versionB": {
"promptId": "prompt_123",
"version": 6,
"label": "Step-by-step instructions (challenger)"
},
"datasetId": "dataset_456",
"primaryMetric": "completeness",
"secondaryMetrics": ["coherence", "overall"],
"confidenceLevel": 0.95,
"minimumEffectSize": 0.1
}Sample Size & Power#
Sample size determines how small a difference you can reliably detect. Too few test cases means you might miss real improvements or falsely conclude there's no difference.
| Sample Size | Detectable Effect | Statistical Power | Use Case |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 cases | Large (0.5+ points) | ~80% | Quick checks, obvious differences |
| 50 cases | Medium (0.3+ points) | ~80% | Standard A/B tests |
| 100 cases | Small (0.2+ points) | ~80% | Precise comparison, subtle changes |
| 200+ cases | Very small (0.1+ points) | ~90% | High-stakes decisions, fine-tuning |
Power Calculator
- The minimum effect size you care about detecting
- Your desired confidence level (typically 95%)
- Historical variance in your quality scores
Statistical Significance#
A/B testing uses statistical methods to determine if observed differences are real or just random noise:
| Concept | Description | Target Value |
|---|---|---|
| p-value | Probability the difference is due to chance alone | < 0.05 (5%) |
| Confidence Interval | Range likely containing the true difference | Narrow range, not crossing zero |
| Effect Size | Magnitude of the difference (in score points) | Depends on your requirements |
| Statistical Power | Ability to detect real differences | > 0.8 (80%) |
{
"comparison": {
"versionA_mean": 4.12,
"versionB_mean": 4.38,
"difference": 0.26,
"percentImprovement": 6.3
},
"statistics": {
"pValue": 0.023,
"confidenceInterval": [0.04, 0.48],
"effectSize": 0.34,
"statisticalPower": 0.85
},
"conclusion": "statistically_significant",
"winner": "versionB",
"recommendation": "Version B shows a statistically significant improvement of 6.3% in overall quality. The difference is unlikely to be due to chance (p = 0.023). Recommend deploying Version B."
}Don't Cherry-Pick Metrics
Interpreting Results#
After the test completes, you'll see one of these outcomes:
Clear Winner (p < 0.05)
One version is statistically significantly better. Safe to deploy the winner with high confidence.
No Significant Difference
Versions perform similarly. Choose based on other factors like simplicity or cost.
Marginal Significance (p < 0.10)
Suggestive but not conclusive. Consider running with more test cases.
Inconclusive (Low Power)
Not enough data to detect differences. Run with a larger dataset.
The results dashboard shows:
- Winner Declaration: Which version won (if any) with confidence level
- Score Comparison: Side-by-side metrics with improvement percentages
- Statistical Details: p-values, confidence intervals, effect sizes
- Distribution Visualization: Overlapping histograms showing score distributions
- Case-by-Case Breakdown: How each version performed on specific inputs
Pairwise Comparison#
While A/B testing provides aggregate statistics, pairwise comparison lets you examine how versions perform on each individual test case:
Side-by-Side Outputs
View both responses for each input to understand qualitative differences.
Per-Case Winner
See which version won each case and by how much.
Win/Loss/Tie Counts
Overall tally of how often each version won, lost, or tied.
Category Analysis
See which categories each version excels or struggles with.
Pairwise analysis helps you understand why one version is better—not just that it is. You might discover that Version B wins on complex cases but loses on simple ones, informing a more nuanced decision.
Live A/B Testing#
For production prompts, you can run live A/B tests that split real traffic between versions:
Configure Traffic Split
Set Duration or Sample Size
Monitor in Real-Time
Auto-Resolution
| Traffic Split | Risk Level | Use Case |
|---|---|---|
| 50/50 | Medium | Standard test when both versions are production-ready |
| 90/10 | Low | Testing new version cautiously while maintaining stability |
| 95/5 | Very Low | Gradual rollout with early signal detection |
| 0/100 (Shadow) | None | Run new version in shadow mode without affecting users |
Production Considerations
- Ensure both versions meet minimum quality standards
- Set up monitoring for error rates and user complaints
- Have a rollback plan if issues arise
- Consider starting with a small traffic percentage
Best Practices#
Follow these guidelines for reliable, actionable A/B testing:
Test One Change at a Time
Define Success Upfront
Use Representative Data
Ensure Adequate Sample Size
Consider Practical Significance
Document Everything
Common Pitfalls#
Avoid these common mistakes that undermine A/B testing validity:
| Pitfall | Problem | Solution |
|---|---|---|
| Peeking at Results | Early stopping inflates false positive rate | Pre-register sample size; use sequential testing if you must peek |
| Multiple Comparisons | Testing many metrics increases false positives | Declare primary metric upfront; apply Bonferroni correction if testing multiple |
| Imbalanced Dataset | Test data doesn't match production distribution | Use stratified sampling or real production data |
| Ignoring Variance | High variance means less reliable results | Increase sample size or reduce temperature for consistency |
| Post-Hoc Rationalization | Explaining away unexpected results | Trust the data; re-run if you suspect issues |
| Small Effect Obsession | Optimizing for tiny improvements | Focus on changes that matter practically |
When Results Surprise You
A/B testing is one of the most powerful tools for data-driven prompt optimization. Combined with quality metrics, it enables confident, systematic improvement of your prompts.